Key Insights
- AVAX may test critical multi-month support near $18.
- Corrective Wave C could be concluding, signaling a potential reversal.
- A breakout above $24 would confirm the next bullish phase.
Avalanche (AVAX) has entered a consolidation phase following a prolonged correction, bringing its price to a vital multi-month support zone. Macro-level analysis indicates the completion of a complex W-X-Y-X-Z pattern, with recent price action hinting at a possible bottom formation.
Technical indicators, including Fibonacci levels and momentum tools, now suggest a reversal opportunity if buyers regain dominance. Below, we dissect AVAX’s price structure across 4-hour and 1-hour charts to forecast its next move.
AVAX Price Analysis: 4-Hour Chart
AVAX’s long-term downtrend from its December 2024 peak (~$55)** unfolded as a W-X-Y-X-Z correction, with **Wave Z** likely concluding at the **$14.37 low (April 7). The subsequent rally in five waves retraced to the $19–$20 support zone—a pivotal area since 2023.
- Critical Zone: The $18.50–$24 range has historically acted as a turning point.
- RSI Divergence: A bullish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart hints at an impending bounce.
- Key Resistance: Reclaiming $22–$24 is essential for bullish momentum.
Volume remains subdued; strong buying pressure is needed to confirm a trend reversal. A breakdown below $18.30** could retest the **March low ($14.37), invalidating the short-term recovery thesis.
AVAX Price Prediction: 1-Hour Chart
The 1-hour chart reveals a clear five-wave impulse rally from April’s low, peaking above $24 in late April. The current A-B-C corrective pattern is nearing completion:
- Wave A: Sharp drop to $20.40.
- Wave B: Weak rebound to $22.80.
- Wave C: Likely testing $18.30 support (aligned with horizontal demand and psychological level).
RSI Insight: Oversold conditions and bullish divergence suggest waning sell pressure, potentially attracting buyers.
👉 Track AVAX’s live price action here
Bullish Scenario
- Hold $18.30–$19.00 and break $22.80** → New impulse wave targeting **$24.16 (0.236 Fib) and higher.
- Break above $24** opens path to **$30.22 (0.382 Fib) and $35.12 (0.5 Fib).
Bearish Risk
- Failure to hold $18.30** risks a drop to **$16.50 or $14.37.
Key Levels Summary
| Support | Resistance |
|------------------|------------------|
| $18.30 | $22.80 |
| $16.50 | $24.16 (0.236 Fib)|
| $14.37 | $30.22 (0.382 Fib)|
Confirmation Signal: Higher low + volume surge above $24.
FAQ
1. Is AVAX undervalued at current levels?
Yes, technicals indicate oversold conditions with strong support near $18.30, offering a potential accumulation zone.
2. What triggers a bullish reversal?
A sustained breakout above $24 with high volume would confirm bullish intent.
3. Could AVAX drop further?
If $18.30** breaks, the next support lies at **$16.50 and $14.37 (March low).
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Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk; always conduct independent research or consult a financial advisor.