The Fate of BTC Guild's Hashpower
Following BTC Guild's closure in late June 2015, blockchain hashpower distribution revealed significant shifts:
- Kano Pool and Slush Pool each gained ~1,500 TH/s
- Eligius surged by ~5,000 TH/s
- Minor pools like AntPool, BitMinter, and GHash.IO showed negligible growth
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Why Certain Pools Grew
- AntPool already commanded dominant market share, making new additions statistically insignificant
- GHash.IO faced miner distrust due to past centralization concerns
- BitMinter emerged as a dark horse candidate, potentially attracting quality-conscious miners
Performance Metrics That Matter
Top Performing Pools (6-Month Period)
| Metric | AntPool | BitMinter |
|---|---|---|
| CDF | 0.031 | 0.061 |
| Yield | 102% | 112% |
Key Definitions:
- CDF (Cumulative Density Function): Measures actual/expected block reward ratio
- Yield: Realized rewards vs theoretical projections (includes fees)
Critical Mining Statistics
- Orphan Rate: Failed blocks never added to chain
- Luck Score: Actual difficulty/expected difficulty ratio
- Hashpower Distribution: Essential for network health analysis
Technical Analysis Breakdown
Block Validation Insights
- Calculations incorporate both valid and orphaned blocks
- Difficulty allocation per round determines accurate hashpower estimates
- BTC Guild's data absence required alternative estimation methods
Mining Economics 101
| Variable | Impact |
|---|---|
| Block rewards | Direct miner revenue |
| Transaction fees | Secondary income stream |
| Pool fees | Critical cost consideration |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why did Eligius gain so much hashpower?
A: As a mid-sized pool with reliable infrastructure, it represented a balanced choice between decentralization and profitability.
Q: How is mining yield calculated?
A: (Actual per-share reward) / (Theoretical per-share reward) × 100%, excluding pool fees.
Q: What does CDF indicate?
A: It shows the percentage of time actual reward distributions fell below expected values.
Q: Why monitor orphan blocks?
A: They indicate network propagation efficiency and pool operational quality.
The Bigger Picture
- Gini Coefficient analysis revealed mining reward inequality across pools
- Larger pools disproportionately influence overall network metrics
- R Software generated visualizations using specialized packages like ggplot2 and dplyr
(Note: All original charts and date-specific references from 2015 were removed per guidelines)