The unexpected rise in the US November ISM Services Index has intensified market concerns about the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes potentially pushing the economy into recession. Three major investment banks warn of further declines in US stocks. On December 6th, Beijing time, US stocks closed lower on Monday. Bitcoin, whose correlation with US stocks has recently strengthened again, also experienced a rise and subsequent retreat overnight. The market now shows a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, leaning toward consolidation.
Market Overview – US Stocks Decline as Bitcoin Investors Adopt Wait-and-See Approach
Market Performance
According to CoinW data, Bitcoin briefly surged yesterday before retreating, currently hovering above both the MA5 and MA30 moving averages. Market caution prevails, suggesting continued consolidation ahead.
- BTC: 24-hour decline of 1.35%
- ETH: 24-hour decline of 2.09%
Key Data Insights
- BTC Dominance: 38.3% (vs. 38.2% yesterday), showing minimal change (Coinmarket).
- Fear & Greed Index: 25 (down from 26), indicating persistent market anxiety (alternative.me).
- GBTC Premium: -43.5% (vs. -42.4%), reflecting slight deterioration (OKLink).
- BTC Funding Rate: -0.022% (unchanged), signaling stronger short positions (CoinCoin).
- RSI 14: 48.2 (down from 51.73), pointing to weaker buying momentum.
Macro Developments
- US ISM Services Index unexpectedly climbed in November.
- Major investment banks predict further stock market declines.
- Bitcoin mining difficulty dropped 7.32% to 34.24T—the sharpest fall since July 2021.
- The UK finalizes crypto regulatory plans.
- FTC investigates misleading ads by crypto firms.
Sector Movements – Play-to-Earn Gains Traction Amid NFT Slump
Top Performers (24h):
- Play To Earn: +8.7%
- Synthetic Issuer: +6.6%
- Metaverse: +4.4%
- XDC Ecosystem: +4.0%
- GameFi: +3.0%
Institutional Investment Highlights:
- A16Z Portfolio: CELO, ETHW, GMX lead gains.
- Coinbase Ventures: SNX, NAOS, ROUTE top performers.
- DCG Portfolio: HNS, STX, MANA show strength.
Sector News:
- Spain’s LaLiga adopts blockchain for goal verification.
- NFT sales dropped 20% in November.
- Vitalik Buterin highlights key Ethereum use cases.
- Malta revises NFT regulatory approach.
- GameStop’s blockchain team hit by layoffs.
Major Crypto Movements – AXS Surges as APE Staking Launches
Top Gainers (Top 100):
- AXS: +19.8%
- SNX: +8.1%
- FXS: +5.7%
- STX: +5.2%
- LTC: +4.7%
Trending Sectors:
- DeFi: NMR, SNX, PERP lead.
- NFT: AXS, MCRT, DERC rise.
- Play-to-Earn: DBC, AXS, MLT gain over 7 days.
Key Updates:
- Sui Testnet Wave 2 slated for early 2023.
- 3.14M APE tokens staked post-launch.
- Coinbase to list GHST and LIT.
Derivatives Data – BTC Bulls Gain Edge
👉 Bitcoin derivatives signal bullish momentum
- BitMEX Data: Longs at 52.95% vs. shorts at 47.05%.
- Rising long/short ratio suggests upward pressure.
Expert Perspectives – US Stocks Face Ongoing Downturn
- Michael Wilson (Morgan Stanley): Warns recent rebound is overdone; advises profit-taking.
- Nicholas Bohnsack (Baird): Highlights challenges in curbing inflation below 4%, anticipating Fed moderation.
Research Insights – Bloomberg’s 2023 Crypto Outlook
- Recovery Signs: Crypto poised to outperform traditional assets post-Fed easing.
- Futures Signal Strength: Bitcoin futures open interest rises vs. declining crude oil.
- Key Levels: BTC support at $10K, resistance at $40K; ETH at $1K.
- Halving Catalyst: BTC’s supply squeeze may drive long-term gains.
FAQ
Q: Why is Bitcoin correlated with US stocks?
A: Macro uncertainty drives investors to treat crypto as a risk asset, mirroring equity trends.
Q: What’s driving Play-to-Earn’s surge?
A: Gaming token utility and staking rewards renew interest.
Q: Will the Fed’s policy shift help crypto?
A: Yes, easing could reduce pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.