Historical Cycle Analysis
Let's examine Bitcoin's past price cycles to predict when the current bull run might conclude. We'll focus on post-halving patterns, excluding the first halving due to its outlier behavior.
Second Halving (2016)
- Initial Surge (Orange Phase): 182 days post-halving to breach the previous cycle's high ($1,177).
- Main Bull Run (Purple Phase): 343 days of uptrend after the breakout, peaking at $19,764.
- Total Duration (Blue Phase): 525 days from halving to cycle top.
Third Halving (2020)
- Initial Surge: 203 days to surpass $19,764.
- Main Bull Run: Another 343-day rally to $69,423.
- Total Duration: 546 days.
Fourth Halving (2024)
Key Observations:
- Price breached the prior high 48 days before halving—unprecedented strength.
- If the 343-day post-breakout cycle holds, the bull market could end by February 2025.
- Extending the 546-day pattern suggests a October 2025 peak.
Analyst Perspective
This cycle's acceleration stems from:
✔ Bitcoin ETF approvals
✔ Anticipated Fed rate cuts
✔ Reduced quantitative tightening
Prediction: The bull market likely concludes by Q1 2025 (343 days post-breakout) rather than Q4 2025.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
Weekly Chart Insights
- Despite a 17.6% correction, Bitcoin swiftly reclaimed the $69,000 level.
- The weekly close above the 2021 high invalidated bearish scenarios.
H4 Chart Dynamics
- Triangle breakout confirmed with support/resistance flip at $69,000.
- Target: New all-time highs, but watch the 1.13–1.272 Fibonacci extension zone for potential reversal signals.
Key Takeaways
- Cycle Shift: Institutional demand via ETFs has compressed historical timelines.
- Critical Levels: Monitor $69,000 as a pivotal support.
- Caution: Price discovery phases lack historical reference points—trade with disciplined risk management.
FAQs
Q: Why is this cycle different from past Bitcoin halvings?
A: ETF inflows and macroeconomic conditions (Fed policy) have accelerated capital inflows, shortening traditional cycle lengths.
Q: What’s the most likely peak timeframe?
A: February 2025 (343-day post-breakout model) is probable, though extended rallies to October 2025 remain possible.
Q: How should traders approach new highs?
A: Use Fibonacci tools to identify profit-taking zones and watch for divergence on momentum indicators.
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Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only. Always conduct independent research.