Executive Summary
- Bitcoin's price surge toward $100K has triggered long-term holders (LTHs) to distribute 507K BTC, significantly less than the 934K BTC sold during the March 2024 peak but still impactful.
- LTHs are realizing record profits, peaking at $2.02B daily—a new all-time high.
- Sell pressure predominantly comes from coins held for 6–12 months, suggesting newer investors are capitalizing on gains.
Significant Distribution by Long-Term Holders
As Bitcoin approaches the psychological $100K milestone, LTHs are capitalizing on heightened liquidity and demand to distribute their holdings. Since September’s peak in LTH supply, this cohort has offloaded 507K BTC—substantial but overshadowed by March’s 934K BTC sell-off.
👉 Track real-time Bitcoin distribution trends
Key Metrics:
- Daily LTH supply distribution: 0.27%, ranking among the top 177 active days historically.
- LTH liveliness metric: Indicates coins spent were likely acquired recently (e.g., ~6 months vs. years).
Profit-Taking Hits Historic Highs
LTHs play a pivotal role in price discovery by reintroducing idle supply into circulation. Their activity intensifies during bull markets:
- Daily realized profit: $2.02B (surpassing March 2024’s record).
- Profit-to-loss ratio: Skyrocketed in November, reflecting near-zero loss-taking by LTHs.
Market sustainability hinges on demand absorbing this excess supply, possibly requiring a consolidation phase.
Seller Risk Ratio Analysis
- Current ratio approaches high-value zones, signaling aggressive profit-taking.
- Still below prior cycle peaks, indicating latent demand potential.
Composition of Sell Pressure
Breaking down the sources of sell pressure reveals:
By Holding Period
| Duration | Realized Profit | Contribution |
|----------------|-----------------|--------------|
| 6–12 months | $12.6B | 35.3% |
| 1–2 years | $7.2B | 20.1% |
| 2–3 years | $4.8B | 13.4% |
Dominance of 6–12 month coins suggests "swing traders" are cashing out post-ETF gains, while older cohorts await higher prices.
By ROI Group
| ROI Range | Realized Profit |
|----------------|-----------------|
| 0–20% | $10.1B |
| 20–40% | $10.7B |
| 100–300% | $13.1B |
Uniform distribution across ROI groups implies gradual profit-taking strategies by investors at varying cost bases.
Sustainability Check
Comparing Unrealized Profit Distribution (URPD) between March and today:
- March 2024: Strong support formed at $40K–$73K after ETF-driven accumulation.
- Current: Limited coins traded between $76K–$88K, creating a "gap" that could act as a pivot zone if prices retrace.
Price discovery requires consolidation—watch for supply redistribution near $88K.
FAQs
Q: Why are LTHs selling now?
A: Profit-taking accelerates near psychological price levels ($100K), with newer investors leading the sell-off.
Q: Will Bitcoin’s rally continue?
A: Sustained demand must absorb LTH sell pressure. A consolidation phase may precede further upside.
Q: Which investor group dominates sales?
A: Coins held 6–12 months contribute 35% of sell pressure, indicating tactical exits by post-ETF buyers.
👉 Explore Bitcoin’s on-chain dynamics in depth
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s march toward $100K has unleashed historic LTH profit-taking ($2.02B/day), primarily from 6–12 month holders. Older cohorts remain hesitant, potentially awaiting higher prices. Market health depends on balancing this supply influx with fresh demand—monitor the $76K–$88K "gap" for clues.
Disclaimer: This report is for educational purposes only. Not investment advice.
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