Key Takeaways
- $2.4B Token Unlock Threat: An impending release of 1.94B ONDO tokens (130% of current market cap) risks significant selling pressure.
- Critical Support Zones: $1.15–$1.28 range holds 749.66M tokens; $1 psychological mark is a decisive level for bullish reversal.
- Market Uncertainty: Recent whale exit of 10.9M tokens at a 20.7% loss signals caution, while Trump’s Jan. 19 event may offer bullish momentum.
As the crypto market rallies, ONDO Finance faces bearish pressure. A 40% pullback from its all-time high ($2.14) has left traders questioning: *Can ONDO defend $1, or will the token unlock trigger a crash?*
Ondo Price Analysis: Bearish Signals vs. Bullish Divergence
ONDO’s daily chart shows consolidation near $1.24 (+2.59% intraday), hovering above the 100-day EMA. Key observations:
- Support at $1.18 stabilizes the lateral trend.
- Bearish Crossroad: 20-day EMA dips below 50-day EMA, but RSI hints at a bullish divergence.
- Fibonacci Target: Immediate resistance at $1.52 (23.6% retracement), suggesting 22% upside potential.
👉 Discover how token unlocks impact market dynamics
The $2.4B Token Unlock: A Supply Tsunami Warning
ONDO’s Jan. 19 unlock dwarfs its $1.8B market cap, risking:
- Flooded Supply: 1.94B tokens entering circulation may trigger mass sell-offs.
- Bullish Catalyst? Trump’s swearing-in ceremony could counterbalance selling pressure.
Whale Exit: Smart Move or Premature?
A whale dumped 10.978M ONDO tokens at a $3.54M loss (-20.7% in 38 days). While labeled "paper-handed," this exit may preempt further declines post-unlock.
Key Support Levels to Watch
- $1.15–$1.28: Holds 749.66M tokens (strongest defense).
- $1–$1.15: 315.96M tokens (intermediate buffer).
- $0.90–$1: 47.66M tokens (last line before deeper correction).
FAQs
Q: How does the token unlock affect ONDO’s price?
A: The unlock could saturate the market, increasing sell pressure unless bullish catalysts (e.g., Trump event) offset it.
Q: Is $1 a reliable support level?
A: Historically, psychological thresholds like $1 attract buying interest, but the unlock’s scale may overwhelm demand.
Q: Should investors follow the whale’s exit?
A: Context matters—assess risk tolerance and monitor post-unlock liquidity before deciding.
👉 Explore real-world asset (RWA) token trends
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Conduct independent research and consult financial advisors before trading.
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