Introduction
This on-chain data analysis provides macro-level insights into recent blockchain activity, assessing the current state of the cryptocurrency market with a focus on Bitcoin's evolving dynamics.
Key Market Observations
Bitcoin vs. Ethereum: Diverging Active Address Trends
Bitcoin's Active Addresses (Figure 1a) show sustained growth since January 2023, nearing 2021牛市 peaks. Drivers include:
- Ordinal inscriptions
- Layer-2 protocol adoption
- Spot ETF speculation
- Ethereum's Activity (Figure 1b) contrasts sharply, hovering near 3-year lows despite similar catalysts.
Relevance: Bitcoin dominates crypto recovery narratives while altcoins lag.
NUPL: Gauging Market Sentiment
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) (Figure 2) currently signals:
- Yellow zone = Bullish but not overextended
- 2023's highest valuation since May 2022
- Historical pattern: Entry into orange/red zones precedes corrective downturns.
Investor Takeaway: Monitor NUPL for early warning signs of profit-taking.
Holder Profitability Analysis
Short-Term Holders (STH)
- Current SOPR >1 (Figure 3a)
- Indicates profit-taking pressure near local tops
Long-Term Holders (LTH)
- Approaching 2021 benchmark levels (Figure 3b)
- Potential distribution phase emerging
Critical Insight: Combined metrics suggest熊市反弹 rather than full-blown牛市.
Strategic Conclusions
Opportunity/Risk Balance:
- Upside remains but volatility expected
- Diversify beyond Bitcoin cautiously
Investor Actions:
- Scale into positions
- Set stop-losses below key support
- Rebalance during anticipated pullbacks
Market Phase Assessment:
- Strong rebound ≠ sustained牛市
- Maintain defensive allocations
FAQ: Addressing Investor Concerns
Q: How reliable are active addresses as a metric?
A: They reflect network utility but don't capture off-chain trading volume. Combine with price action.
Q: Should I sell when NUPL enters orange?
A: Not necessarily - use it to tighten risk management. Historical resistance zones provide additional context.
Q: What's the best strategy during STH profit-taking?
A: Dollar-cost averaging reduces timing risk. 👉 Learn advanced DCA tactics
Q: Are altcoins worth considering now?
A: Selective opportunities exist, but Bitcoin's dominance suggests prioritizing BTC exposure. 👉 Explore market dominance trends
Disclaimer: This analysis represents observational data, not financial advice. Always conduct independent research.