Introduction
The rise of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies has sparked global interest—from speculative trading to genuine belief in their potential as future currencies. Despite their relatively small market size (peaking in January 2018 at a市值 comparable to Apple's), their volatility has drawn scrutiny from regulators like the G20. This article explores the essence of digital currencies through the lens of monetary theory and outlines their potential evolutionary paths.
Revisiting Monetary Essence: The Three Pillars of Currency
Modern monetary theory frames currency as a social institution built on trust, with three core components:
Money of Account
- An abstract unit (e.g., USD, CNY) to measure value and debt.
- Historically rooted in centralized authorities (states/temples), not market bargaining.
- Requires stabilization mechanisms to maintain value.
Transferable Credit
- Represents a debtor-creditor relationship (e.g., central bank liabilities).
- Acceptability depends on collective trust, often enforced by legal systems (e.g., tax laws).
Token & Bookkeeping System
- Physical/digital tokens (coins, banknotes, blockchain entries) paired with secure ledgers.
- Must resist forgery (e.g., cryptographic hashing in blockchains).
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Digital Currency’s Fatal Flaws as Money
Lack of Monetary Foundations
- No Liability Backing: Cryptocurrencies aren’t obligations of any entity, unlike fiat currencies (central bank liabilities) or bank deposits (insured credits).
- Unstable Accounting Units: Prices are pegged to fiat currencies (e.g., BTC/USD), lacking independent valuation frameworks.
The "Stablecoin" Paradox
Projects like Tether (USDT) mimic fiat systems by:
- Holding reserves (e.g., dollars).
- Offering redemption promises.
- Using algorithmic adjustments.
Why They Fail:
- Lack transparency (e.g., Tether’s unaudited reserves).
- Contradict decentralization ideals by relying on centralized assets.
Two Future Pathways for Digital Currency
1. State-Issued Digital Currencies (CBDCs)
Advantages:
- Central bank-backed stability.
- Combines cash anonymity with digital efficiency.
Challenges:
- Case study: Venezuela’s oil-backed Petro failed due to pre-existing trust deficits.
2. Innovative "Token + Ledger" Applications
Beyond Currency:
- Asset tokenization (e.g., real estate, stocks on blockchain).
- IoT integration for "smart property" management.
Financial Infrastructure:
- Peer-to-peer securities settlement.
- Distributed autonomous organizations (DAOs).
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FAQs
Q: Can cryptocurrencies replace fiat money?
A: Unlikely—without liability backing and stabilization mechanisms, they remain volatile assets, not currencies.
Q: Are stablecoins a safe alternative?
A: Current models lack transparency and regulatory oversight, making them unreliable.
Q: What’s the most promising use of blockchain?
A: Tokenizing real-world assets and rebuilding legacy financial systems with distributed ledgers.
Conclusion
Digital currencies face existential hurdles as money but excel as programmable tokens. Their future lies in:
- CBDCs (state-adopted digital fiat).
- Token-ledger innovations (asset digitization, decentralized finance).
Most existing cryptocurrencies will fade, while robust tokenization projects could redefine value exchange. Regulatory clarity and technological maturity remain critical for long-term viability.
This analysis reflects the author’s views, not institutional endorsements.