Overview
Despite macroeconomic challenges—including declining U.S. consumer confidence and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions—Bitcoin demonstrated resilience in April 2025, rising 3.56% to $84,965. This growth parallels gold's record highs, reinforcing Bitcoin's role as a hedge amid market uncertainty. Below, we analyze critical trends, on-chain metrics, and institutional activity shaping Bitcoin's trajectory.
Macroeconomic Context
Consumer Sentiment and Trade Tensions
U.S. Consumer Confidence:
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted 11% to 50.8 in April—the lowest since June 2022.- Inflation Expectations: 1-year ahead inflation rose to 6.7%, the highest since 1981.
- Trade War Impact: Tariffs between the U.S. and China escalated (U.S.: 145%; China: 125%), affecting $700 billion in traded goods.
Market Performance
Equities:
- S&P 500: Weekly gain of 5.7% (best in over a year).
- Nasdaq: Up 7.3%, driven by tech-sector optimism.
- Dollar Index: Fell 2% to 99.2, a 3-year low, signaling capital outflows from U.S. assets.
- Gold: Surged to a record $3,236/oz, highlighting demand for safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin Market Data
Key Metrics (Week-over-Week)
| Metric | Previous Week | Current Week | Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Wallets (7d) | 8,562,392 | 7,366,629 | 🔴 -13.97% | Retail decline |
| Hashrate | 990,590,366,025 EH/s | 869,786,662,851 EH/s | 🔴 -12.20% | Miner adjustments |
| Exchange Reserves | 2,422,203 BTC | 2,437,657 BTC | 🟢 +0.64% | Mild selling pressure |
| Transaction Volume | 3,924,607 BTC | 4,099,077 BTC | 🟢 +4.45% | Whale activity |
Price Action
- Resistance: $86K (local high).
- Support: $81.8K** (local); **$74.4K (strong base).
- Options Market: Max Pain shifted from $86K** to **$82K, reflecting cautious sentiment. Call options dominate above $90K, suggesting latent bullish interest.
Institutional and On-Chain Insights
Whale Behavior
Accumulation Phase:
- After distributing 420K BTC near all-time highs ($60K–$100K), whales resumed buying at $88K.
- Current aggregate balance: 5.26M BTC (up from 5.68M peak).
Short-Term Holders (STHs):
- STH whales increased holdings from 249K BTC (Nov 2024) to 1,425K BTC (April 2025).
- Average entry price: $89.9K (unrealized losses), signaling long-term conviction.
Mining Trends
- Hashrate dip suggests temporary miner capitulation, but long-term competitiveness remains intact.
Forecast and Recommendations
Investment Outlook
🟢 OUTPERFORM (Accumulate)
- Catalysts: Institutional adoption (e.g., BlackRock’s ETF custodian shift), macroeconomic hedging.
- Risks: Regulatory scrutiny, liquidity shocks.
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FAQ
Q: Why is Bitcoin rising despite weak consumer sentiment?
A: Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with the dollar and its perception as "digital gold" attract capital during economic uncertainty.
Q: Are retail investors leaving the Bitcoin market?
A: Yes—active wallets dropped 14%, but whale activity offsets this decline.
Q: What’s next for Bitcoin’s price?
A: A break above $86K** could target **$90K; failure to hold $81.8K** may test **$74.4K.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s resilience amid macroeconomic turbulence underscores its maturation as an asset class. Institutional accumulation and declining retail participation suggest a market in transition, with volatility likely to persist. Monitor trade war developments, Fed policy, and on-chain trends for directional cues.
Disclaimer: This report is informational only. Conduct independent research before investing.