The Bitcoin (BTC) price could average $500,000 between 2024 and 2028, according to PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This bold prediction, restated on July 2, 2025, has reignited discussions among analysts, especially as new data from CryptoQuant and Glassnode emerged the same day.
Why PlanB’s Bitcoin Price Prediction Matters
PlanB’s forecast hinges on Bitcoin’s scarcity-driven valuation, projecting a range of $250,000 to $1 million, with midpoint possibilities like $300,000 or $600,000. Key points from his analysis:
- Unrealized profits for long-term holders sit at 220%, below prior cycle peaks (300–350% in 2024).
- Bitcoin may need to hit $140,000 to mirror previous profit margins.
- The S2F model remains a theoretical guide, not a guarantee.
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Market Data Supports Growth Potential
Fresh metrics reveal a resilient BTC market:
- CryptoQuant: Long-term holder profits dipped to 220% (last seen in October 2024). Realized price for this group is $39,000, signaling room for upside.
- Glassnode: BTC trades above the 1-month realized level ($105,100), with short-term holders still profitable.
Key Institutional Moves
- Metaplanet (Japan) acquired 1,005 BTC ($108M), becoming the 5th-largest corporate holder (13,350 BTC total).
- MicroStrategy added 4,980 BTC ($532M), boosting its stash to 597,325 BTC.
- Other firms like Semler Scientific and GameStop are expanding BTC portfolios.
FAQs: Bitcoin’s $500K Forecast Explained
1. What is the Stock-to-Flow model?
The S2F ratio measures scarcity by comparing an asset’s circulating supply to its production rate. Bitcoin’s halving events (reducing new supply) underpin its bullish S2F projections.
2. Is $500,000 realistic for BTC?
While ambitious, historical halving cycles show exponential post-event gains. Institutional adoption and ETF inflows could fuel this trajectory.
3. How do long-term holder metrics affect price?
Lower unrealized profits (220% vs. 300%+) suggest the market isn’t overheated yet, potentially leaving room for growth.
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Conclusion: A Balanced Outlook
PlanB’s forecast aligns with Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative and growing institutional demand. However, investors should weigh:
- Macro risks (regulation, liquidity shifts).
- On-chain signals (holder profit levels, realized prices).
- Adoption trends (corporate/ETF buying).
As of writing, BTC trades at $107,294** (+0.79% daily), with a **$2.13T market cap. The path to $500,000 remains speculative but structurally plausible.
Disclaimer: Predictions are not financial advice. Crypto investments carry risks of loss. Data may change without notice.
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