Bitcoin (BTC) is trading in a narrow range following last week's rally, as investors await critical macroeconomic developments. With pivotal U.S. fiscal deadlines and fluctuating institutional demand, market sentiment remains cautious.
Traders Reduce Exposure Amid Trade Uncertainty
- 7-Day Volatility Hits 0.79%: Bitcoin’s price movement is at its tightest since October 2023 (per K33 Research).
- Geopolitical Relief Fades: Last week’s Iran-Israel ceasefire spurred a 7% surge, but momentum waned as U.S. tariff debates resurfaced.
Key Events:
- July 9 Tariff Suspension Expiry: Potential market impact if trade tensions escalate.
- U.S. Independence Day Holiday: Low liquidity could amplify price swings.
👉 How tariff policies affect crypto markets
Institutional Demand Shows Early Weakness
- ETF Outflows: U.S. bitcoin ETFs saw $342M withdrawn on Tuesday—the highest since May 30—breaking a 15-day inflow streak.
- Arizona’s Bitcoin Bill Vetoed: HB2324, which proposed a state digital asset fund, was rejected over concerns about law enforcement cooperation.
Bitwise Predicts $136K BTC in July
The firm cites three catalysts:
- Post-Geopolitical Gains: Historical rallies follow tensions (e.g., U.S.-Iran-Israel conflict).
- Supply-Demand Imbalance: Institutions buy more BTC than miners produce.
- Global Rate Cuts: Increased liquidity supports crypto markets.
FAQ
Q: Why is bitcoin’s volatility so low?
A: Traders are sidelined ahead of U.S. fiscal decisions and tariff deadlines, reducing market activity.
Q: Could ETF outflows trigger a price drop?
A: Sustained withdrawals may pressure prices, but long-term demand trends (e.g., rate cuts) could offset this.
Q: What’s the significance of Arizona’s vetoed bill?
A: It highlights regulatory hesitancy around state-level crypto asset management, potentially slowing U.S. adoption.
👉 Institutional crypto strategies for 2025