Adapted from Superphiz's analysis, with key insights from Ethereum researchers and developers.
The Ethereum Merge remains one of the most anticipated events in the crypto space, marking Ethereum’s transition to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). Community advisor Superphiz synthesizes five compelling indicators pointing to a June 2022 completion timeline.
Key Indicators Supporting a June 2022 Merge
1. Danny Ryan’s Solarpunk Future Speech
At ETHDenver 2022 (February 19), core researcher Danny Ryan hinted at the Merge’s timing:
"The difficulty bomb’s timing will be impeccable—perhaps June or July."
This suggests developers aim to execute the Merge before the bomb’s explosion to avoid network slowdowns.
2. Consensus Layer Team’s Urgency
During the March 10 Consensus Layer call, Ben Edgington pressed Danny Ryan on the 10-day delay for the Kiln testnet. Ryan’s response emphasized tight deadlines:
"We’re finalizing technical components and coordinating with the broader community."
Such precision implies a June target.
3. Near-Completion of the Merge Checklist
The mainnet readiness checklist shows critical items (e.g., engine API specifications) already finalized. While minor tasks remain, the heaviest lifting is done.
4. Kiln: The Final Pre-Merge Testnet
Launched on March 10, Kiln is widely regarded as the last major testnet before the Merge. Its success validates PoS readiness.
5. Difficulty Bomb’s June Deadline
Per EIP-4345, the difficulty bomb will detonate around June 2022. Since block times are unpredictable, the exact date may vary. However, developers face a clear choice:
- Merge before June.
- Delay the bomb (unpopular, as no one advocates for this).
- Face network congestion post-explosion.
FAQs
Q: What happens if the Merge misses the June deadline?
A: The difficulty bomb will slow block production, incentivizing developers to expedite the Merge or risk user frustration.
Q: Is Kiln the only testnet before the Merge?
A: Yes. Kiln’s outcomes will determine mainnet deployment readiness.
Q: How does the Merge impact ETH holders?
A: No action is required. Stakeholders will begin earning PoS rewards post-transition.
👉 Explore Ethereum’s PoS future
Superphiz’s prediction hinges on aligning incentives: completing the Merge by June avoids disruptive delays. Whether exact or slightly adjusted, the timeline reflects meticulous planning.
👉 Dive deeper into Ethereum’s roadmap
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