Market Highlights
- Treasury Yields: 10-year U.S. Treasury yield drops to 4.22%, lowest in two months
- Equities: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reach new all-time highs (S&P at 6,204; Nasdaq at 20,369)
- Currency Markets: EUR/USD gains 0.59%, marking an 8-day winning streak
- Commodities: Gold rebounds 0.9% to $3,303/oz; WTI crude holds near $65
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Key Developments
1. Global Trade Optimism
- Canada suspends digital services tax to advance U.S. trade negotiations
- EU proposes compromise on U.S. 10% base tariffs, seeking exemptions for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors
- Deadline for tariff negotiations set for July 9
2. Central Bank Watch
- Fed rate cut expectations rise for September (Goldman Sachs forecast)
- ECB Vice President Guindos: Current rates align with 2% inflation target
- Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee sees no stagflation risk despite tariff concerns
3. Corporate Moves
- Meta launches Superintelligence Lab with 11 new AI hires
- Apple considers third-party AI (Anthropic/OpenAI) to upgrade Siri
- Circle (USDC issuer) files for U.S. national trust bank charter
Market Performance (June 30)
| Asset | Change | Level |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ 0.52% | 6,204 |
| Nasdaq | ▲ 0.48% | 20,369 |
| Gold | ▲ 0.91% | $3,303/oz |
| EUR/USD | ▲ 0.59% | 1.1800 |
| Bitcoin | ▼ 1.11% | $107,170 |
Today’s Economic Calendar
- China: June Caixin Manufacturing PMI
- Eurozone: June CPI (YoY)
- U.S.: ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTs Job Openings
- Central Bank Panel: Fed/ECB/BOE governors’ discussion
FAQs
Q: Why did Treasury yields fall?
A: Cooling inflation fears and stronger Fed rate-cut expectations reduced demand for higher yields.
Q: What’s driving the EUR/USD rally?
A: Dollar weakness (DXY at yearly low) and optimism about EU-U.S. tariff compromises.
Q: Is Meta’s AI push significant?
A: Yes. The new Superintelligence Lab aims to compete with OpenAI, signaling major AI investment.
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Analyst Insights
- Morgan Stanley: Expects continued equity gains fueled by earnings revisions and Fed easing.
- Goldman Sachs: Warns of potential tariff-driven inflation delaying Fed cuts until September.
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