To navigate the current Bitcoin (BTC) bull market cycle, I’ve developed a structured "bull cycle top zone" checklist to identify potential peak zones—not the exact peak price, but the upper bounds of the cycle where BTC typically remains within ~10% of its highest price.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Always conduct your own research.
Understanding the "Top Zone"
By "top zone," I refer to the period when BTC hovers near its cycle peak. For example:
- 2021 Cycle: Two peak zones lasted ~93 days and ~45 days, respectively, with ~161 days between peaks.
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Methodology: Building the Checklist
Brainstorming Indicators
- Evaluated metrics like Google Search trends, NFT valuations, on-chain data, whale activity, Fear/Greed Index, and macroeconomic factors.
- Used AI to refine signals, prioritizing those with minimal noise and historical correlation.
Historical Backtesting
Focused on signals from past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021), such as:
- Exchange app rankings
- Google search interest peaks
- Mainstream media frenzy
- Extreme Fear & Greed readings
Tiered Signal System
- Tier 1: Strongest correlation (e.g., exchange app #1 ranking).
- Tier 2: Supportive but less precise (e.g., sustained high search volume).
- Tier 3: Contextual factors (e.g., regulatory shifts).
Key Signals & Thresholds
1. Exchange App #1 Ranking (4–5 Points)
Criteria: A major exchange app (e.g., Coinbase) ranks #1 in the U.S. App Store’s "Top Free" category.
- 4 Points: Holds #1 for 3+ consecutive days.
- 5 Points: Holds #1 for 7+ consecutive days (bonus point).
Rationale: Retail FOMO peaks when crypto apps top general app charts.
2. Peak Google Search Volume for "Bitcoin" (4 Points)
- Source: Google Trends (7-day average).
- Threshold: Weekly searches ≥90% of the last cycle’s peak, sustained for 7+ days.
Rationale: Global search interest climaxes near market tops.
Cross-Verification Strategies
Combine signals from:
- Retail sentiment (app ranks, Google Trends).
- On-chain metrics (MVRV-Z ≥7, NUPL ≥0.75).
- Market structure (whale inflows, derivatives leverage).
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FAQs
Q1: How accurate is this checklist?
A: It’s probabilistic—based on historical patterns, not guarantees.
Q2: Why exclude backtesting?
A: To avoid overfitting; this cycle’s regulatory/political climate differs.
Q3: What’s the most reliable signal?
A: Tier 1 indicators (e.g., exchange app rankings + Google Trends).
Q4: Can macroeconomic events override these signals?
A: Yes, but the checklist prioritizes direct market data over context.
Conclusion
This checklist merges retail mania, on-chain fundamentals, and market structure shifts to estimate Bitcoin’s peak zone. Use it as a heuristic—not a crystal ball.
Final Tip: Always cross-check signals and stay updated on macro trends.